Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 9.017578 10.357814 11.801693 13.469547 15.339544 17.367979 19.731185
2025-12-21 6.634897 8.355742 10.357538 12.844982 15.838704 19.310625 23.625738
2025-12-28 5.808781 7.753265 10.126373 13.210545 17.084826 21.760151 27.795250
2026-01-04 5.111419 7.193556 9.847288 13.437158 18.120247 23.970936 31.774272
2026-01-11 4.459368 6.582595 9.395729 13.338534 18.654873 25.499207 34.887819
2026-01-18 3.916082 6.044780 8.968800 13.203016 19.087031 26.870731 37.820363
2026-01-25 3.510620 5.647296 8.681149 13.206854 19.669268 28.428348 41.029050
2026-02-01 3.196821 5.345048 8.490788 13.313755 20.374148 30.157316 44.518659
2026-02-08 2.875759 4.994647 8.192500 13.227601 20.777483 31.462391 47.452247
2026-02-15 2.589147 4.666258 7.893877 13.107274 21.105146 32.652761 50.249512
2026-02-22 2.382853 4.445228 7.737922 13.183032 21.712851 34.254658 53.682293
2026-03-01 2.260839 4.351630 7.772252 13.549439 22.769561 36.546662 58.198586
2026-03-08 2.037281 4.064905 7.476182 13.377244 22.995160 37.629191 61.002591
2026-03-15 1.764745 3.662392 6.953512 12.795849 22.535145 37.642588 62.189360
2026-03-22 1.679772 3.593935 6.992376 13.145818 23.581160 40.006376 67.041181
2026-03-29 1.583105 3.493046 6.964813 13.376648 24.437187 42.099884 71.544077
2026-04-05 1.446928 3.300715 6.756930 13.276580 24.728962 43.299386 74.675363
2026-04-12 1.319657 3.112322 6.539922 13.142258 24.948461 44.381246 77.646625
2026-04-19 1.222206 2.974706 6.405948 13.145850 25.399515 45.850186 81.283021
2026-04-26 1.145643 2.873079 6.331996 13.252403 26.030934 47.634664 85.487066
2026-05-03 1.054042 2.728721 6.162459 13.166566 26.311100 48.834261 88.759091
2026-05-10 0.967166 2.585184 5.982440 13.046735 26.518844 49.911241 91.853321
2026-05-17 0.907091 2.496538 5.906653 13.122184 27.083104 51.614013 96.048845